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Be Uncool
I believe in the long tail. To me, it is the essence of opportunity opened by the decreasing cost of end-user (formerly “consumer”) communication. Those who collect and collate user-generated data are in a tremendous position to connect us with our soulmates (or at least needmates or wantmates) and anticipate our real needs.
So why are these tagging/bookmarking/rating “sites” focusing on the “popular?” Why are we using this data to figure out what’s “cool” when it could be really valuable to figure out what’s relevant to me, at a given point in time?
It is in the long tail that I am incentivized to give more data. I should be able to upload my favorites to a site, and it should give me smart recommendations as to what else I might like, and who else I should talk to.
Otherwise, the “popular” lists are public goods (on the margin, they are as useful to me without my input as with), and while they have a number of contributors, I predict the input part of the business will not break out until they start offering the other half.
We’re weird, we’re unique. Those things that are mass phenomena - the head - are going to be handled equally well by those who do not have any depth of data (editorial can substitute at this level) . But the common is only a plurality of our needs and wants - and “we” are a small group for each requirement or desire.
For this reason, user-generated data is the key to the platform adding value, but the applications that can exploit the long tail aspect are key to incentivizing use of and therefore the growth of the platform.
Also, since a large userbase is necessary, either multiple data source “platforms” must all feed into an application, or there will be a major shakeout, with only one or two of these source databases remaining with any significance at the end. For with a only with large group do you have significant opportunities for niches to form, and that’s what Reed’s Law is all about.